News Room > Press Releases
Political Attitudes of Voters for the UKs Three Main Political Parties
LONDON5 May 2005 The final Harris Poll forecast for todays
British election was released yesterday (predicting a five point Labour lead in
the popular vote).This prediction was based on interviews with 6,411 adults,
including 4,134 likely voters, surveyed online in Great Britain between May 1
and 4, 2005. While one purpose of that survey was to provide our final
prediction it also included many other questions that were designed to
understand the mood of the electorate and their reasons for voting one way or
another.
The tables below show the replies to these questions among the people who are
most likely to vote, analyzed by whether they intend to vote Conservative,
Labour or for the Liberal Democrat. These tables are based on the 4,134 eligible
voters who told us they are "absolutely certain" to vote today. The
data are weighted demographically by sex, age, education, income and
location. In addition, propensity score weights are used to eliminate other
differences that exist when using an online sample to project the results to the
population of all adults.
Though this online sample was not a probability sample, in theory, with
probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that
the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 2
percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been
polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible
sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than
theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be
interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting.
It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.
We hope that these data will be useful to commentators and journalist who are
interpreting and analyzing the results of tonights election.
TABLE 1
Political Philosophy By Voting Intention
"In general, if you had to place yourself on the
political spectrum, would you be on the...?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Right |
17 |
37 |
8 |
5 |
Centre |
61 |
58 |
61 |
65 |
Left |
22 |
5 |
31 |
29 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 2
Importance of This Election By Voting Intention
"Each general election is significant. hhHHowever, some
are more important to the future of the country than others. How important do
you think this election is with regard to the future of the United
Kingdom?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Not at all important |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
Somewhat important |
15 |
9 |
18 |
18 |
Important |
28 |
24 |
29 |
32 |
Very important |
34 |
38 |
33 |
32 |
Extremely important |
21 |
28 |
18 |
15 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 3
Military Actions in Iraq By Voting Intention
"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you
think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to
do?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Wrong thing |
46 |
55 |
30 |
60 |
Right thing |
39 |
32 |
54 |
23 |
Not sure |
15 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 4
Immigration Policy By Voting Intention
"Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
"The current government has been too lax with regard to its immigration
policy?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Disagree |
20 |
2 |
35 |
23 |
Agree |
70 |
95 |
53 |
62 |
Not sure |
10 |
4 |
12 |
15 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 5
Satisfaction with NHS By Voting Intention
"Overall, how satisfied are you with the service provided
by the National Health Service (NHS)?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Very dissatisfied |
10 |
15 |
5 |
11 |
Somewhat dissatisfied |
26 |
36 |
17 |
25 |
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied |
17 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
Somewhat satisfied |
32 |
23 |
41 |
32 |
Very satisfied |
15 |
7 |
23 |
13 |
Not sure |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 6
Confidence in Economy By Voting Intention
"How pessimistic or optimistic are you about the future
of the national economy?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Very pessimistic |
6 |
11 |
3 |
4 |
Somewhat pessimistic |
27 |
41 |
13 |
28 |
Neither pessimistic nor optimistic |
32 |
32 |
27 |
36 |
Somewhat optimistic |
31 |
16 |
46 |
29 |
Very optimistic |
5 |
* |
11 |
3 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
* indicates a percentage < 0.5%
TABLE 7
Vote for Prime Minister By Voting Intention
"Ignoring the current electoral system, if you had to
vote for a Prime Minister only and not the political party who would you vote
for?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Tony Blair |
31 |
6 |
64 |
14 |
Michael Howard |
17 |
49 |
1 |
4 |
Charles Kennedy |
27 |
16 |
18 |
59 |
None of these |
25 |
29 |
17 |
23 |
TABLE 8
More Efficient Government Resulting In Lower Taxes By
Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
More efficient government resulting in lower taxes
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
65 |
53 |
73 |
67 |
Yes |
35 |
47 |
27 |
33 |
TABLE 9
50 percent Top Tax Rate By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
50% top tax rate
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
91 |
97 |
92 |
83 |
Yes |
9 |
3 |
8 |
17 |
TABLE 10
Local Income Tax in Place of Council Tax By Voting
Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Local income tax in place of council tax
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
71 |
78 |
73 |
58 |
Yes |
29 |
22 |
27 |
42 |
TABLE 11
Higher Living Standards By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Higher living standards
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
83 |
87 |
81 |
84 |
Yes |
17 |
13 |
19 |
16 |
TABLE 12
Strong Economy By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Strong economy
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
65 |
68 |
56 |
71 |
Yes |
35 |
32 |
44 |
29 |
TABLE 13
Tougher School Discipline By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Tougher school discipline
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
69 |
63 |
72 |
71 |
Yes |
31 |
37 |
28 |
29 |
TABLE 14
Smaller Class Sizes By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Smaller class sizes
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
88 |
90 |
86 |
86 |
Yes |
12 |
10 |
14 |
14 |
TABLE 15
Higher Pensions For Over 75s By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Higher pensions for over 75s
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
83 |
86 |
81 |
85 |
Yes |
17 |
14 |
19 |
15 |
TABLE 16
More School Choice By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you? "
More school choice
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
97 |
97 |
97 |
96 |
Yes |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
TABLE 17
Eliminate Student Tuition Fees By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Eliminates student tuition fees
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
81 |
88 |
81 |
70 |
Yes |
19 |
12 |
19 |
30 |
TABLE 18
Better Results At Schools By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Better results at schools
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
92 |
94 |
90 |
91 |
Yes |
8 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
TABLE 19
Free Personal Care For Elderly By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Free personal care for elderly
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
72 |
72 |
67 |
76 |
Yes |
28 |
28 |
33 |
24 |
TABLE 20
More Childcare By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
More childcare
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
93 |
96 |
91 |
91 |
Yes |
7 |
4 |
9 |
9 |
TABLE 21
More Family Leave By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
More family leave
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
95 |
96 |
94 |
95 |
Yes |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
TABLE 22
Cleaner Hospitals By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Cleaner hospitals
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
63 |
58 |
63 |
69 |
Yes |
37 |
42 |
37 |
31 |
TABLE 23
Shorter Hospital Waiting Lists By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Shorter hospital waiting lists
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
81 |
85 |
77 |
83 |
Yes |
19 |
15 |
23 |
17 |
TABLE 24
Faster NHS Treatment By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Faster NHS treatment
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
67 |
65 |
65 |
60 |
Yes |
33 |
35 |
35 |
40 |
TABLE 25
Elimination Of NHS Targets By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Elimination of NHS targets
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
88 |
85 |
92 |
84 |
Yes |
12 |
15 |
8 |
16 |
TABLE 26
Substantial Increases In The Number Of Police By Voting
Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Substantial increases in the number of police
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
78 |
74 |
78 |
81 |
Yes |
22 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
TABLE 27
Safer Communities By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Safer communities
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
63 |
65 |
59 |
67 |
Yes |
37 |
35 |
41 |
33 |
TABLE 28
More Prisons By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
More prisons
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
95 |
93 |
96 |
99 |
Yes |
5 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
TABLE 29
Immigration Controls By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Immigration controls
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
54 |
34 |
64 |
63 |
Yes |
46 |
66 |
36 |
37 |
TABLE 30
Tougher Border Protection By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
Tougher border protection
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
85 |
75 |
91 |
91 |
Yes |
15 |
25 |
11 |
9 |
TABLE 31
More Aid For Africa By Voting Intention
"Which of the following political party priorities are
important to you?"
More aid for Africa
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
91 |
98 |
87 |
90 |
Yes |
9 |
2 |
13 |
10 |
TABLE 32
The Sun Coming Out and Supporting Labour By Voting
Intention
"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you
will vote? Please select all that apply."
The Sun Coming Out and Supporting Labour
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
96 |
97 |
93 |
98 |
Yes |
4 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
TABLE 33
Labour Back Bencher Brian Sedgemore Defecting To The Liberal
Dems By Voting Intention
"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you
will vote? Please select all that apply."
Labour back bencher Brian Sedgemore defecting to the Liberal
Dems
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
97 |
98 |
97 |
95 |
Yes |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
TABLE 34
The Tory Campaign Denouncing Tony Blair A Liar By Voting
Intention
"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you
will vote? Please select all that apply."
The Tory campaign denouncing Tony Blair a liar
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
88 |
83 |
87 |
95 |
Yes |
12 |
17 |
13 |
5 |
TABLE 35
The Consequences of the Iraq War By Voting Intention
"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you
will vote? Please select all that apply."
The consequences of the Iraq war
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
No |
75 |
68 |
88 |
61 |
Yes |
25 |
32 |
12 |
39 |
TABLE 36
Influence of Gordon Brown As Prime Minister On Vote By
Voting Intention
"If Gordon Brown was the Prime Minister of the country,
would you be more or less likely to vote Labour?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
More |
21 |
12 |
23 |
26 |
Less |
19 |
28 |
15 |
15 |
Wouldnt make any difference |
61 |
60 |
62 |
59 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 37
Leader You Would Choose To Have For A Social Visit/Party
By Voting Intention
"Which one of the following political leaders would you
choose to have around for a social visit/party?"
Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote
|
Total |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
Tony Blair |
27 |
7 |
53 |
10 |
Michael Howard |
11 |
31 |
1 |
8 |
Charles Kennedy |
30 |
22 |
22 |
31 |
None of these |
32 |
40 |
24 |
42 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
About HI Europe
HI Europe (www.hieurope.com) is the London-based subsidiary of global
research and consultancy Harris Interactive Inc. (www.harrisinteractive.com),
the 15th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the
world. HI Europe is known for its expertise in strategic business and consumer
research, particularly in the IT and telecom industries. The Company solves its
clients' complex business problems through thoughtful application of innovative
methodologies and technologies, using both traditional and online methods.
Parent-company Harris Interactive Inc., pioneers of Internet-based research
methods and known for The Harris Poll?, combines its
intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership
through its U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe,
Paris-based Novatris (www.novatris.com), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive
Japan, recently acquired U.S.-based WirthlinWorldwide and WirthlinEurope, and
through a global network of affiliate firms.
To become a member of the Harris Poll OnlineSM and be invited to
participate in future online surveys, visit www.harrispollonline.com.
Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
+1-585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
+1-585-214-7172
|