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Political Attitudes of Voters for the UK’s Three Main Political Parties

LONDON—5 May 2005— The final Harris Poll forecast for today’s British election was released yesterday (predicting a five point Labour lead in the popular vote).This prediction was based on interviews with 6,411 adults, including 4,134 likely voters, surveyed online in Great Britain between May 1 and 4, 2005. While one purpose of that survey was to provide our final prediction it also included many other questions that were designed to understand the mood of the electorate and their reasons for voting one way or another.

The tables below show the replies to these questions among the people who are most likely to vote, analyzed by whether they intend to vote Conservative, Labour or for the Liberal Democrat. These tables are based on the 4,134 eligible voters who told us they are "absolutely certain" to vote today. The data are weighted demographically – by sex, age, education, income and location. In addition, propensity score weights are used to eliminate other differences that exist when using an online sample to project the results to the population of all adults.

Though this online sample was not a probability sample, in theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

We hope that these data will be useful to commentators and journalist who are interpreting and analyzing the results of tonight’s election.

TABLE 1

Political Philosophy – By Voting Intention

"In general, if you had to place yourself on the political spectrum, would you be on the...?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Right

17

37

8

5

Centre

61

58

61

65

Left

22

5

31

29

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

TABLE 2

Importance of This Election – By Voting Intention

"Each general election is significant. hhHHowever, some are more important to the future of the country than others. How important do you think this election is with regard to the future of the United Kingdom?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Not at all important

2

1

1

3

Somewhat important

15

9

18

18

Important

28

24

29

32

Very important

34

38

33

32

Extremely important

21

28

18

15

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

TABLE 3

Military Actions in Iraq – By Voting Intention

"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Wrong thing

46

55

30

60

Right thing

39

32

54

23

Not sure

15

14

16

17

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

TABLE 4

Immigration Policy – By Voting Intention

"Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "The current government has been too lax with regard to its immigration policy?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Disagree

20

2

35

23

Agree

70

95

53

62

Not sure

10

4

12

15

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

TABLE 5

Satisfaction with NHS – By Voting Intention

"Overall, how satisfied are you with the service provided by the National Health Service (NHS)?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Very dissatisfied

10

15

5

11

Somewhat dissatisfied

26

36

17

25

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied

17

18

14

19

Somewhat satisfied

32

23

41

32

Very satisfied

15

7

23

13

Not sure

1

1

1

1

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

TABLE 6

Confidence in Economy – By Voting Intention

"How pessimistic or optimistic are you about the future of the national economy?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Very pessimistic

6

11

3

4

Somewhat pessimistic

27

41

13

28

Neither pessimistic nor optimistic

32

32

27

36

Somewhat optimistic

31

16

46

29

Very optimistic

5

*

11

3

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

* indicates a percentage < 0.5%

TABLE 7

Vote for Prime Minister – By Voting Intention

"Ignoring the current electoral system, if you had to vote for a Prime Minister only and not the political party who would you vote for?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Tony Blair

31

6

64

14

Michael Howard

17

49

1

4

Charles Kennedy

27

16

18

59

None of these

25

29

17

23

TABLE 8

More Efficient Government Resulting In Lower Taxes – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

More efficient government resulting in lower taxes

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

65

53

73

67

Yes

35

47

27

33

TABLE 9

50 percent Top Tax Rate – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

50% top tax rate

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

91

97

92

83

Yes

9

3

8

17

TABLE 10

Local Income Tax in Place of Council Tax – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Local income tax in place of council tax

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

71

78

73

58

Yes

29

22

27

42

TABLE 11

Higher Living Standards – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Higher living standards

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

83

87

81

84

Yes

17

13

19

16

TABLE 12

Strong Economy – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Strong economy

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

65

68

56

71

Yes

35

32

44

29

TABLE 13

Tougher School Discipline – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Tougher school discipline

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

69

63

72

71

Yes

31

37

28

29

TABLE 14

Smaller Class Sizes – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Smaller class sizes

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

88

90

86

86

Yes

12

10

14

14

TABLE 15

Higher Pensions For Over 75s – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Higher pensions for over 75s

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

83

86

81

85

Yes

17

14

19

15

TABLE 16

More School Choice – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you? "

More school choice

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

97

97

97

96

Yes

3

3

3

4

TABLE 17

Eliminate Student Tuition Fees – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Eliminates student tuition fees

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

81

88

81

70

Yes

19

12

19

30

TABLE 18

Better Results At Schools – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Better results at schools

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

92

94

90

91

Yes

8

6

10

9

TABLE 19

Free Personal Care For Elderly – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Free personal care for elderly

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

72

72

67

76

Yes

28

28

33

24

TABLE 20

More Childcare – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

More childcare

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

93

96

91

91

Yes

7

4

9

9

TABLE 21

More Family Leave – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

More family leave

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

95

96

94

95

Yes

5

4

6

5

TABLE 22

Cleaner Hospitals – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Cleaner hospitals

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

63

58

63

69

Yes

37

42

37

31

TABLE 23

Shorter Hospital Waiting Lists – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Shorter hospital waiting lists

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

81

85

77

83

Yes

19

15

23

17

TABLE 24

Faster NHS Treatment – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Faster NHS treatment

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

67

65

65

60

Yes

33

35

35

40

TABLE 25

Elimination Of NHS Targets – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Elimination of NHS targets

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

88

85

92

84

Yes

12

15

8

16

TABLE 26

Substantial Increases In The Number Of Police – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Substantial increases in the number of police

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

78

74

78

81

Yes

22

26

22

19

TABLE 27

Safer Communities – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Safer communities

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

63

65

59

67

Yes

37

35

41

33

TABLE 28

More Prisons – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

More prisons

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

95

93

96

99

Yes

5

7

4

1

TABLE 29

Immigration Controls – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Immigration controls

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

54

34

64

63

Yes

46

66

36

37

TABLE 30

Tougher Border Protection – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

Tougher border protection

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

85

75

91

91

Yes

15

25

11

9

TABLE 31

More Aid For Africa – By Voting Intention

"Which of the following political party priorities are important to you?"

More aid for Africa

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

91

98

87

90

Yes

9

2

13

10

TABLE 32

The Sun Coming Out and Supporting Labour – By Voting Intention

"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you will vote? Please select all that apply."

The Sun Coming Out and Supporting Labour

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

96

97

93

98

Yes

4

3

7

2

TABLE 33

Labour Back Bencher Brian Sedgemore Defecting To The Liberal Dems – By Voting Intention

"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you will vote? Please select all that apply."

Labour back bencher Brian Sedgemore defecting to the Liberal Dems

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

97

98

97

95

Yes

3

2

3

5

TABLE 34

The Tory Campaign Denouncing Tony Blair A Liar – By Voting Intention

"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you will vote? Please select all that apply."

The Tory campaign denouncing Tony Blair a liar

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

88

83

87

95

Yes

12

17

13

5

TABLE 35

The Consequences of the Iraq War – By Voting Intention

"Which, if any, of the following influenced the way you will vote? Please select all that apply."

The consequences of the Iraq war

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

No

75

68

88

61

Yes

25

32

12

39

TABLE 36

Influence of Gordon Brown As Prime Minister On Vote – By Voting Intention

"If Gordon Brown was the Prime Minister of the country, would you be more or less likely to vote Labour?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

More

21

12

23

26

Less

19

28

15

15

Wouldn’t make any difference

61

60

62

59

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

TABLE 37

Leader You Would Choose To Have For A Social Visit/Party – By Voting Intention

"Which one of the following political leaders would you choose to have around for a social visit/party?"

Base: Absolutely Certain to Vote

 

Total

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

 

%

%

%

%

Tony Blair

27

7

53

10

Michael Howard

11

31

1

8

Charles Kennedy

30

22

22

31

None of these

32

40

24

42

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding

About HI Europe

HI Europe (www.hieurope.com) is the London-based subsidiary of global research and consultancy Harris Interactive Inc. (www.harrisinteractive.com), the 15th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. HI Europe is known for its expertise in strategic business and consumer research, particularly in the IT and telecom industries. The Company solves its clients' complex business problems through thoughtful application of innovative methodologies and technologies, using both traditional and online methods.

Parent-company Harris Interactive Inc., pioneers of Internet-based research methods and known for The Harris Poll?, combines its intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership through its U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe, Paris-based Novatris (www.novatris.com), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan, recently acquired U.S.-based WirthlinWorldwide and WirthlinEurope, and through a global network of affiliate firms.

To become a member of the Harris Poll OnlineSM and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit www.harrispollonline.com.

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Harris Interactive
+1-585-214-7316

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Harris Interactive
+1-585-214-7172

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