In Spite of Media Coverage, Widespread Belief in Weapons of Mass Destruction and Iraqi Links to Al Qaeda Remain Virtually Unchanged

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – April 21, 2004 – A new Harris Poll finds that public perceptions of the facts that led up to the invasion of Iraq remain almost unchanged in spite of a barrage of media reports that might have changed them.

For example:

• A 51% to 38% majority continues to believe that "Iraq actually had weapons of mass destruction," virtually unchanged since February.
  
• A 49% to 36% plurality of all adults continues to believe that "clear evidence that Iraq was supporting Al Qaeda has been found." These numbers have scarcely changed since June 2003.
  
• A 51% to 43% plurality continues to believe that "intelligence given before the war to President Bush by the CIA and others about Iraqi's weapons of mass destruction" was "completely" or "somewhat" accurate. In February a 50% to 45% plurality believed this.
  
• While a 43% plurality believes that the "U.S. government deliberately exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to increase support for war," a 50% plurality (also virtually unchanged over the last eight months) continues to believe that the government "tried to present the information accurately."

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 979 adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive^® between April 8 and 15, 2004.

Only one of the eight questions asked in this survey on Iraq found any significant change over the last two months. Those who believe that it is "very likely" that the U.S. will get "bogged down for a long time in Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there" have increased from 37% in February to 45% now. However this has had no significant impact on the number of people who "favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops there until there is a stable government " (42%) or those who favor "bringing most of our troops home in the next year" (51%).

The remarkable stability of these numbers suggest that people have made up their minds on many of the key issues relating to weapons of mass destruction and links to Al Qaeda, and that it would take something very big to change them. It seems that people believe media reports which fit with their opinions and reject those which do not. The balance on several of the key questions is tilted roughly 50% to 40% in favor of the administration.

If President Bush continues to enjoy this modest but significant advantage between now and November, it will be difficult for Senator Kerry and the Democrats to use these issues against him in the election campaign. If, on the other hand, a substantial majority of the public comes to believe that there were no weapons of mass destruction, or links to Al Qaeda, or that President Bush exaggerated the evidence to increase support for the invasion, the result could be disastrous for him.

"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will get bogged down for a long time in Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there? Would you say that is . . .?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"Do you believe that what we were told by the government before the Iraq war about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and Iraq’s links to Al Qaeda, the terrorist organization, was generally accurate or misleading?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"Do you believe that clear evidence of weapons of mass destruction has been found in Iraq, or not?

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"Do you believe Iraq actually had weapons of mass destruction when the war began or not?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"Do you believe clear evidence that Iraq was supporting Al Qaeda has been found in Iraq or not?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"Do you believe that intelligence given before the war to President Bush by the CIA and others about Iraqi's weapons of mass destruction was completely accurate, somewhat accurate, somewhat misleading, or very misleading?"

  Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"Do you believe that the U.S. government deliberately exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in order to increase support for war, or do you think it tried to present the information accurately?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between April 8 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 979 adults (ages 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of ±3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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