Election Results Further Validate Efficacy of Harris
Interactive’s Online Methodology
Probability samples no longer required for accuracy
ROCHESTER, NY – November 6, 2008 – (NASDAQ:HPOL) - The Harris Poll®
issued its final presidential popular vote predictions late on election eve:
Senator Obama 52% - Senator McCain 44%. Although the final voting results are
not in, the most current data available indicate that Obama won by 53% to McCain’s
46%, showing our predictions to be fairly close.
"The 2008 presidential election provided us with a unique opportunity to
further prove the effectiveness of our online survey methods," said
Kimberly Till, CEO of Harris Interactive. "Election predictions are highly
public tests of the efficacy of any methodology, and Harris Interactive proved
once again that our online research methods are fast, are very accurate, and are
equal to, if not better than the best in the industry."
Although the results aren’t final, we believe that our other predictions
also were accurate, including:
- "It will be the first time that the winning candidate has won more
than half the votes since … 1988." (53%)
- "Obama’s margin of victory is likely to result in Obama winning
between 350 and 380 Electoral College votes". (current estimate is 364
electoral votes)
Also, the many demographic vote predictions in The Harris Poll, were
almost all very close to the exit poll numbers published by CNN:
Demographic |
Obama |
McCain |
|
Harris Poll |
CNN Exit Polls |
Harris Poll |
CNN Exit Polls |
Male |
50% |
49% |
45% |
48% |
Female |
53% |
56% |
43% |
43% |
2004 Bush voter |
15% |
18% |
82% |
81% |
2004 Kerry Voter |
87% |
89% |
10% |
9% |
Republicans |
11% |
9% |
88% |
89% |
Democrats |
87% |
89% |
11% |
10% |
Independents |
51% |
52% |
42% |
44% |
East |
59% |
59% |
39% |
40% |
Midwest |
50% |
54% |
45% |
44% |
South |
47% |
46% |
49% |
53% |
West |
53% |
55% |
40% |
42% |
These results provide further evidence of the accuracy and reliability of the
methods used by Harris Interactive to conduct marketing and opinion research
online, consistent with our good track record in predicting more than 70
elections over the last eight years.
"There is much uncertainty about the future of telephone polls because
of their very low, and still declining, response rates, the large and increasing
number of people with no landlines and the difficulties and costs involved with
adding samples of the "cell-phone only" population," said
Humphrey Taylor, Chairman of The Harris Poll. "This election further
confirms that well managed, panel-based online polls are a reliable and accurate
way of measuring public opinion and predicting elections. They will be more
widely used in the future."
Table taken from Real Clear Politics, November 5, 2008
General Election McCain vs. Obama |
Poll |
Field Date(s) |
Sample Size/ Mode |
Margin
of Error |
Obama |
McCain |
Difference |
Actual Voting Results
(as of 11/5/08) |
11/4 |
119.8 million |
- |
53% |
46% |
Obama +7 |
The Harris Poll |
10/29 – 11/03 |
5,210/ online** |
* |
52% |
44% |
Obama +8 |
RCP Average |
10/29 - 11/03 |
-- |
|
52.1 |
44.5 |
Obama +7.6 |
Marist |
11/03 - 11/03 |
804/Tel |
4.0 |
52 |
43 |
Obama +9 |
Battleground (Lake)* |
11/02 - 11/03 |
800/Tel |
3.5 |
52 |
47 |
Obama +5 |
Battleground (Tarrance)* |
11/02 - 11/03 |
800/Tel |
3.5 |
50 |
48 |
Obama +2 |
Rasmussen Reports |
11/01 - 11/03 |
3000/Tel |
2.0 |
52 |
46 |
Obama +6 |
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby |
11/01 - 11/03 |
1,201/Tel |
2.9 |
54 |
43 |
Obama +11 |
IBD/TIPP |
11/01 - 11/03 |
981/Tel |
3.2 |
52 |
44 |
Obama +8 |
FOX News |
11/01 - 11/02 |
971/Tel |
3.0 |
50 |
43 |
Obama +7 |
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl |
11/01 - 11/02 |
1011/Tel |
3.1 |
51 |
43 |
Obama +8 |
Gallup |
10/31 - 11/02 |
2,472/Tel |
2.0 |
55 |
44 |
Obama +11 |
Diageo/Hotline |
10/31 - 11/02 |
887/Tel |
3.3 |
50 |
45 |
Obama +5 |
CBS News |
10/31 - 11/02 |
714/Tel |
-- |
51 |
42 |
Obama +9 |
ABC News/Wash Post |
10/30 - 11/02 |
2,470/Tel |
2.5 |
53 |
44 |
Obama +9 |
Ipsos/McClatchy |
10/30 - 11/02 |
760/Tel |
3.6 |
53 |
46 |
Obama +7 |
CNN/Opinion Research |
10/30 - 11/01 |
714/Tel |
3.5 |
53 |
46 |
Obama +7 |
Pew Research |
10/29 - 11/01 |
2,587/Tel |
2.0 |
52 |
46 |
Obama +6 |
** 3,946 likely voters
* All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling,
are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to
quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated
with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options,
and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids
the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be
calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities
for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only
theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Methodology
This Harris Poll® was conducted online within the United States between
October 30 and November 3, 2008 among 5,210 adults (aged 18 and over), of whom
3,946 were likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education,
region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into
line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting
was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a
long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our science and
technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris Interactive
serves clients globally through our North American, European and Asian offices
and a network of independent market research firms. For more information, please
visit https://harrisinteractives.com/.
Media contact:
Carol Fricke
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive Inc.
585.214.7479
800.866.7655 x7479
press@harrisinteractive.net
|